Weather

For marine weather-related questions and answers, read on.

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Dvorak Technique Study Manual

Dear Madam, Sir, Two years ago, I ordered your Mariners Weather Book and read it. A compliment to your book. It is one of the best books, to learn maritime weather by sailors. On page 366, you refer about the Dvorak Technique to understand hurricane forecasting. Please give me the detailed information about this book: Where can I order it? What’s the price? Yours sincerely, A. Schroeder

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 8, 2004)    |    Comments (0)

World Storm Patterns

Hi, I am enjoying reading our book “Surviving the Storm”. I know you could not cover all the topics, and I have not read the whole book yet, but I could not find data or reference to world storm patterns. If one was chicken, and wanted to avoid category two and three heavy weather storms (page 16), what cruising routes could be planned, and where not to be at what time of year? I recall some published charts that show wind direction and speed at various locations. What about information on routes and the best time of the year to avoid bad storms. Could you name a few good sources for me. I get the hint that New Zealand is risky at best. If I missed this information in your book, please let me know where it is located. Thanks, Mike

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 4, 2001)    |    Comments (0)

Unusual Revolving Storms

Firstly, let me say how much I am enjoying your books, Mariner’s Weather Handbook and Surviving the Storm. For anyone with the slightest interest in the weather around them and in taking a boat to sea, they are excellent reading. However, I do have a couple of queries:

On page 340 of the ‘Mariner’s Weather Handbook’ you show three photographs of tropical revolving storms, when and where they should not be, one off Angola (West Africa) in April 1991 and two of one storm in the Eastern Mediterranean in January (no year mentioned). It is my understanding that no tropical revolving storms have ever been reported in the South Atlantic (until now) and that the sea temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean in January are certainly not high enough for cyclogenesis nor is the ITCZ anywhere near the Mediterranean. Have you any explanation for these phenomena and/or a year for the Mediterranean storm (I would like to research past meteorological records to find what conditions actually existed in the latter case).

I look forward to your reply, Brent

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (July 3, 2000)    |    Comments (0)

Avoiding Bad Weather – Predicting the Track of a Low Pressure System

Dear Steve, I have just read your analysis of the Queens Birthday Storm 1994. First of all, I’d like to thank you for your efforts in producing such detailed analysis – they are a wonderful education for relative novices like myself. I do have a question you may be able to help me with.

I agree with your position that the best way to avoid bad weather is to get out of the way – by staying in shelter or sailing fast in a direction which avoids the storm track.

Avoiding the storm track has to rely on knowing which way the storm/low pressure system is likely to be moving. These days, with all the communication aids to obtaining recent surface charts obviously has made this vastly easier than it was 10 or 20 years ago.

However there may well be occasions when you have lost communication and you know, either from before your weather fax went down, or from increasing wind and the barometer going down, that there is potential for bad weather.

You can simply find in which direction the low lies and work out the quadrant you are in.

However, my question is, how reliably can you estimate the potential storm track if you are no longer getting comms? The latitude you are sailing in and in which ocean obviously has a strong bearing as most lows are likely to track NE, E or SE if you are below 25/30 degrees South. Is this true, or can you be more accurate than NE/E/SE, and how?

Cyclones can and do seem to go W – possibly more frequently than they track NE/E/SE? Why is this? And will tropical lows do the same?

There is probably a lot more to this than I realize, but I would be greatly interested in any comments you might have and how if possible can you predict the track.

Best regards, Peter P.S. I have purchased Practical Seamanship – love it, so also just ordered the Cruising Encyclopedia.

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 30, 1999)    |    Comments (0)

Sea Breeze Effects

Steve, My question relates to how the sea and land temperatures influence wind patterns. If the sea temperature is warmer than the adjacent land, then what type of flow can I expect? This specifically relates to So. Calif. waters and down towards Ensenada. Thanks, John

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 30, 1999)    |    Comments (0)

South Pacific Typhoon Season

Hi folks – If you were a small Falmouth Cutter 22, heading around the world, on what date would you most like to leave Panama, in order to best avoid the South Pacific typhoon season? This is the only piece of essential cruising information I can’t find on your marvelous web site. Thank you very much. Dr. Gene

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 30, 1999)    |    Comments (0)

Sailing North From Mexico

Our catamaran is being delivered to Ensenada just after Christmas. Can you point me to information regarding sailing north from Ensenada to San Francisco. Thanks, Steve

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 30, 1999)    |    Comments (0)

Weather Help for 1st-Time Participants of Rallies

I would like to see information for first time participants on rallies, races and regattas. I went on the NARC Rally thinking it was about safety and found myself in 30-35 kt. winds with gusts even higher. There was no reliable weather information after the weather briefing in Newport and trusted the coordinator to keep us safe and informed. We ended up calling the weather coordinator on our Gobalstar because he had no way of keeping updated on the weather. I would like to know what questions I should ask IF I EVER DO THAT AGAIN. What I should look for in a coordinator to judge the safety of the operation.

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 30, 1999)    |    Comments (0)

Wx Analysis for Caribbean to East Coast US Passage

Re sailing to Bermuda, what’s the best weatherfax station for the trip–New Orleans? And for Bermuda–Newport, is it the Boston station? Anything we need to worry about weatherwise for the Virgin Gorda–Bermuda run or is it pretty straightforward this time of year? As for Bermuda–Newport, I am basically terrified and am quite tempted by American Airlines. This, from someone who’s sailed 5800 miles, now! There’s no reforming a worrier…

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 30, 1999)    |    Comments (0)

Marine Prediction Center–Viewing Faxes

Hi–I took your advice (article on The New Way to Get Weather Faxes) and got weather faxes from Marine Prediction Center. When I opened them they were scrambled letters and numbers only. Is the TIF format something I need to have a program for in order to decode and read? Thanks, Frank

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 30, 1999)    |    Comments (0)

Gale Rider

I am trying to find a source to get some pricing and technical info on the Gale Rider drogue. Can you help? Thanks. :-) Tom

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 30, 1999)    |    Comments (0)

Predicting Weather

Hi. I have purchased and completely read Mariner’s Weather Handbook, and now I am reading Surviving the Storm. I would like to take a stab at weather prediction, say for my own area (Detroit, MI) as a way to build the skills you suggest are necessary to make the best possible passages. My problem is, after reading all this material I must be in info overload as I have no idea how to start. Could you suggest a simple recipe for doing prediction using the internet that I could try out? I tried looking at some of the marine sites mentioned in the book, but there are so many sites and so many links to info. I am lost. A recipe might look like…

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 30, 1999)    |    Comments (0)

Weather Logic–BVI to Bermuda

Hi Steve, We were planning to leave for Bermuda tomorrow, but just received a WX report from Commanders that’s a bit scary. They are predicting the “largest storm of the season” over Bermuda this Thurs and Fri. Are suggesting we can get there before it hits, but I’m not sure about that. And even if we get in safely, will have to anchor in St. George’s sufficiently well to withstand 55 knots, according to them. We asked Herb about the storm tonight, but he refused to comment, saying Fri is too far off. I can’t see the warning signs on the 96hr 500mb (maybe they’re over the West Coast now?), but I confess I’m still not great at understanding the 500mb charts, your Mariner’s Weather Handbook notwithstanding. We have no deadlines, no pressure to leave, except for a fridge full of food! What do you think, O Great Seer of the 500mb charts? Commanders says if we don’t leave tomorrow, we should wait till Tuesday, and will be motoring most of the way. By the way, David Jones has not warned our friends about this at all (they’re using him for routing), and they’re expecting to arrive in Bermuda Thurs or Fri as well.

Sorry to trouble you, but I would appreciate your opinion. By the way, we’re in Virgin Gorda Yacht Harbor, and BEOWULF looks in great shape over there in the yard. Regards, Candace

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 30, 1999)    |    Comments (0)

El Niño

Where can I find more technical info on passages in El Niño years? I’ve been unable to find anything, even in your books and website. There’s talk of reinforced trades, reversed trades, and as you say reduced trades. Is there any solid data or experience on the subject? Many thanks again…Jan

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Posted by Steve Dashew  (November 30, 1999)    |    Comments (0)

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