We’ve been using the new (to us) weather routing software to which Troy Bethel introduced us. As cruisers, on an Unsailboat no less, many of the race-oriented features sit idle. But the weather functions are wonderful. This is especially true now that the combination of Sailmail SSB and Iridium are working so well (more on this in a future update).

What we like in particular about the Expedition software is that it allows us to easily compare files from different world wide weather models. In some weather patterns one model may be working better than another, and this new flexibility is a huge boost in our ability to understand what is going on, the risk factors, and how to make the fastest and most comfortable passage. If that sounds enthusiastic it is because we are stoked on this product.

Lets start with the weather models. Using either Expedition connected to an Internet source such as Iridium, or Sailmail (with the SSB radio or Iridium) the first step is to select a model.

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We’re headed for Panama now, and while this route will generally have winds from the aft quadrant, we are using a combination of tools to look ahead and see what the weather gods are planning.

Using programs like SailMail, UUPlus, and Ocens we are currently getting used to the new GFS weather model and getting reacquainted with NOGAPS as well.

Then there is a new routing tool being developed for cruisers. This is an offshoot of one of the most successful ocean racing programs, Nick White’s “Expedition”. The racers need all sorts of complex calculations with a variety of ways of playing “what if” games. For cruising we want it much simpler and easier to use. That’s one of the things we have been working with Troy Bethel on, an example of which is above.

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Those of you who have been with us for a while know we have a passion for and about weather. Weather affects everything we do when cruising: our comfort, passage speed, security. Obviously this applies at anchor as well as on passage.

Although the latest generation of weather models are better, they still have problems resolving the data on a micro basis, where it affects all of us. That’s why there are still so many weather-related “surprises” when cruising.

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We left Neiafu in the Vava’u group of islands in the northern part of Tonga on Friday the 11th of August, sailing towards Fiji. There was no wind, so we motored along towards an offshore island called Late Island. We had seen on the chart that Metis Shoal and Home Reef in the area were known for volcanic activity. Both are south of Late Island, so we thought it was best to pass it on the north side. Fairly soon we discovered brown grainy streaks in the water. It looked like heavy oil mixed with water. The surrounding water was strangely greenish, like a lagoon, not the deep bluish color that you normally see sailing offshore. The further southwest we got, the streaks turned into heavy bands of floating matter, until the whole horizon was a solid line to what looked like a desert.

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Warning Signs

The normal nature of tsunamis is such that they are preceded by a long-range trough. This causes an atypical drop in water level. This occurred during the recent Indian Ocean situation, and was responsible for much of the loss of life at Hilo, Hawaii, many years ago when it was hit (many of those drowned at Hilo were out on the reefs looking for shells in the unusually low tide).
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The following photos were taken by Catherine York, who was aboard the J46 Aragorn anchored off Phi Phi Don, Thailand, when the tsunamis hit.  These photos cover a one-minute span, showing the first ebb and the first flood.

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Hello “out there”. First and foremost, thanks to those of you who have rung or e-mailed over the last few days concerned about our welfare. The situation along the coast here in Thailand, particularly Phuket, is fairly disastrous, as most of you will know, since I understand the coverage has been understandably extensive with some dramatic and horrible images of the mayhem caused by the Tsunamis.

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The tremors began at 7.58am. The long, low-frequency shakes lasted two minutes. It wasn’t the shattering, sharp jolt one expects from a California quake, but it felt ominous. The tremors lasted long enough that I had time to put a bowl of water on the floor to verify the shakes. Sure enough, the water was rippling.

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There is so much weather data available today that capturing and absorbing it can be an overwhelming project. We look for a few good sources that apply to the area in which we are cruising-and then concentrate on those.

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We’ve had an ongoing conversation about the forecasting process over the years with Dave Feit, who runs the Marine Prediction Center. Recently Dave pointed us to a new (to us) resource, which is a technical discussion of the North Atlantic and Pacific forecasts. This includes how the weather models are behaving, and what various scenarios are for the different forecast products. These “interpretations” are done in a sort of shorthand.

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This is a PDF file listing weatherfax frequencies and schedules for fax stations around the world.

Click here to download.

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During the recent collision of hurricane Ivan with Grenada, one of our Sundeer 64s, Jedi, was at anchor in Mount Hartman Bay. We were able to contact Jedi’s owners, Nick and Josie, through the help of another cruiser in Venezuela. While we’d not wish this experience on anyone, their comments serve to put the blow into perspective, and to analyze what could help if one was ever caught in such a situation.

Jedi was originally called Polaris, and has a slightly shallower draft (by six inches/150mm) than the standard Sundeer 64s. She is ketch rigged. The photo above shows one of her sisterships. Following are our questions for Nick and Josie, and their answers.

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We’ve been receiving e-mails from some of our friends in the Southern Caribbean with early reports of what happened in Grenada. News is still sketchy, but we’ve picked up a few details. First, our prayers go out to all of those in Grenada, and to everyone who is worried about friends and loved ones in the area.

The bottom end of the Caribbean (including Grenada and Trinidad) is considered out of the hurricane zone.

However, as with all generalities that deal with weather, and as recent events have shown, this has to be taken with a grain of salt.
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