{"id":19103,"date":"2011-10-30T00:14:03","date_gmt":"2011-10-30T05:14:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/?p=19103"},"modified":"2011-10-30T00:20:31","modified_gmt":"2011-10-30T05:20:31","slug":"meteorological-bomb-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/meteorological-bomb-coming\/","title":{"rendered":"Meteorological Bomb Coming?"},"content":{"rendered":"

“Hi Steve. \u00a0Speaking of storms and weather patterns what do you think about the low off the east coat. \u00a0\u00a0Looked ominous on the surface charts and even more so on the 500 mb charts. \u00a0Some weather sites are calling it a low pressure “bomb”. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0I have read your Mariners Weather Handbook a few times through and this system seemed like a good learning opportunity.”<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/p>\n

Thanks for the heads up, Mike:<\/p>\n

For anyone interested in weather, this \u00a0is what gets the adrenalin flowing at the Ocean Prediction Center. Right now this is just a hurricane strength storm forecast, bad enough if you are caught in it,<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

but it has the potential to create enormous waves because of its size and the possibility of a dynamic fetch event (see Mariner’s Weather Handbook for more on this little known phenomenon).<\/p>\n

The 500mb chart above gives a hint of what may come. You have high pressure over Greenland (only part of which is shown) high pressure to the south, and an intense low squashed between them.<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/p>\n

The 24 hour surface wind and wave report above shows the start of the\u00a0 action.<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/p>\n

And then the 48 hour forecast. If you are caught,\u00a0 staying out of the south east quadrant is critical to the best chance of having a positive outcome. Note the speed at which this system is forecast to travel. When the storm systems travel at the same speed as waves propagate, huge waves are created. It doesn’t happen often – and probably won’t here, but if it does, with this combination of features, we could be hearing about 65 to occasional 100 footers (20\/30 meters).<\/p>\n

You can see the complete run of faxes here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Below is the duty forecaster’s commentary on what he sees in the models, a form of dialog between forecasters, that can help you spot problems ahead of the officially released forecasts.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

AGNT40 KWNM 300114\r\nMIMATN\r\nMARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION \r\nNWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC\r\n914 PM EDT SAT 29 OCT 2011 \r\n.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES\/WINDS\/SEAS\/SIGNIFICANT \r\n.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. \r\nENHANCED SATELLITE IMGERY OVER THE WRN ATLC INDICATING STG JET \r\nSEGMENT WITH EMBEDDED SHRTWV TROF MOVING OFF THE CST AND DRIVING \r\nNE ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS. ALSO LATEST MDLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE \r\nSTG INTSFYG LOW PRES MOVING NE OVER THE NRN MID ATLC INTO NEW \r\nENG WTRS. ADDITIONALLY MDLS SHOWING GOOD INTIALIZATON WITH \r\nLATEST RU2 OVER THE NRN MID ATLC INTO NEW ENG SHOWING STG \r\nAGREEMENT WITH EHANCD CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCD SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY. . \r\nAT THE SFC...DVLPG LOW 180 NM E NE OF CAPE MAY AT 996 MB AT 00Z \r\nWITH A MATURING FNTL BNDRY. THIS LOW ABOUT 1 TO 2 MB LOWER THAN \r\nTHE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST UKMET AND 4 \r\nKM NAM MDLS. THIS LATEST DVLPMNT OF THE LOW REMAINS IN LINE WITH \r\nTHE TRENDS OF THE MDLS...THEREFORE STILL GOING WITH STG \r\nINTENSIFICATION TRHOUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WILL CONTINUE TO \r\nFOLLOW THE TENDS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. \r\nAS FOR SEAS...HAD A RPT SE OF LONG ISLAND TO 29 FT...BUT OTHER \r\nOBS NEAR BY IN THE UPPER TEENS...WILL GO FOR ARND 20 FT NEAR \r\nTHIS LOCATION...OTRW CONCERN THAT WAVE MDLS ABOUT 3 TO 5 FT LOW \r\nIN PLACES OVER THE WRN ATLC. \r\nPREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................\r\nGLOBAL MDLS APPR TO HAVE GOOD INITIALIZATION ON INTSFYG CSTL \r\nSTORM APCHG BALT CNYN AND RMN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS LOW PASSES \r\nTHRU SERN NT1 WTRS TONIGHT AND E OF WTRS SUN MRNG. 12Z CMC \r\nGLOBAL AND ESPCLY NOGAPS RMN SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND FASTER BUT \r\nPREFER PSN NR HAGUE LN NEAR 980 MB GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS OF ASCD \r\nJET STRM SPRT...WITH 12Z NAM4 SHOWING UPR 970S AT THAT TIME AND \r\nGFS ALMOST AS DEEP. GFS 30M WNDS PEAK AT 65 KT GLF OF MAINE \r\nEARLY SUN AND GENLY SPRTS CURRENT FCST BUT 4KM NAM SHOWS BL WNDS \r\n70 KT GETTING INTO NW GEORGES BANK IN LN WITH EARLIER RUN \r\nSHOWING 10M WNDS 64 KT. PLAN TO EXPAND HURCN FRC WND WRNG INTO \r\nTHAT AREA. OTRW WILL PLAN ON NO SGFNT CHANGES OTHER THAN FAR SRN \r\nGALE WRNG FOR TONIGHT THRU MON AS STORM PASSES NE OF AREA \r\nFOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES. \r\nMON NIGHT THRU WED MDLS DVLP A WAVE FM S OF AREA AND MOVE IT \r\nNE...SKIRTING OUTER NT2 WTRS BEFORE PASSING WELLS OF NFLD LATER \r\nWED. ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT OF MDLS IN HNDLG THIS LOW \r\nAND PLAN TO GO WITH IT EXCP SOME BLENDING WITH STRONGER UKMET \r\nTUE AS LOW PASSES JUST E OF CENTRAL NT2 WTRS. DUE TO COUNTER \r\nFLOW TO GLF STRM AND NE FLOW 10 M WNDS MAY BE TOO LOW. PLAN TO \r\nUPGRADE SE BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LN TO STORM TUE INTO WED WITH LOW \r\nTO MOD CONFDC BUT OTRW CONT WITH PREVIOUSLY FCST GALE WRNGS. \r\nWILL GO WITH MDL CONSENSUS ENDING GALES LATER WED AND DMSH WNDS \r\nTHU AS HIGH PRES RDG MOVS OVR WTRS. \r\nSEAS ARE STARTING OUT 2 TO 5 FT HIGHER THAN MWW3 NRN NT2 INTO \r\nSRN NT1 WTRS IN INCRG E TO NE FLOW. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING \r\nTHAT MDL COULD BE AT LEAST 2-4 FT LOW ARND THE DPNG SYSTEM \r\nESPCLY N OF HAT CNYN THRU MON. FOR THE DVLPG WAVE OFF SE CST \r\nSINCE ECMWF\/UKMET PREFERRED WILL USE ECMWF WAVE MDL EXCP INCRS \r\nVALUES 20 PCT IN NRN AND CENTRAL NT2 WTRS IN CAA AND COUNTER \r\nFLOW TO GLF STRM. \r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...LATEST RUN OF THE ETSS MDL \r\nSTILL INDICATING SURGE ALONG THE NJ COAST NE TO LONG ISLAND AND \r\nIN LINE WITH THE TRENDS OF THE GFS. VALUES PEAK UP TO 2 FT NJ \r\nCST AND 2 TO 3 FT L.I. SOUND THIS EVENING AND 1 TO 2 FT CAPE COD \r\nE CST NWD TO SRN MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN LOOK \r\nRSNBL...WITH VALUES GOING NEGATIVE TO SML POSITIVE IN N TO NW \r\nFLOW BHND STORM LATER SUN. \r\n.WARNINGS\/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE \r\nCOORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: \r\n.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS \r\n.GULF OF MAINE...STORM OVRNGT...MDT TO HI CONFDC. HURCN FORCE \r\nWINDS SUN...MDT CONFDC. \r\n.GEORGES BANK...STORM OVRNGT...HI CNFDC. HURCN FORCE SUN...LOW \r\nTO MOD CONFDC. \r\n.S OF NEW ENGLAND...STORM OVRNGT INTO SUN...MDT TO HI CONFDC. \r\n.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS \r\n.HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...STORM OVRNGT...MDT CNFDC. \r\n.BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...STORM OVRNGT INTO SUN...MDT TO HI \r\nCONFDC. STORM TUE INTO WED...LOW TO MOD CONFDC. \r\n.BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...GALE OVRNGT...MDT TO HI CONFDC. \r\nGALE TUE INTO WED...MDT CONFDC. \r\n.HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...GALE OVRNT...MDT CONFDC. GALE TUE \r\nINTO WED...MDT CONFDC. \r\n.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...GALE OVRNGT...LOW TO MOD CONFDC. \r\n.FORECASTER MCRANDAL\/BANCROFT. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
“Hi Steve. \u00a0Speaking of storms and weather patterns what do you think about the low off the east coat. \u00a0\u00a0Looked …Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dashew-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19103"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19103"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19103\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}