{"id":2243,"date":"2008-05-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-05-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/?p=2243"},"modified":"2009-04-15T08:52:36","modified_gmt":"2009-04-15T13:52:36","slug":"s_logs-dashew-dashew490","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/s_logs-dashew-dashew490\/","title":{"rendered":"Towards Lunenberg, Day 3"},"content":{"rendered":"
Bahamas towards Lunenberg, Day 3.<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

The forecast southerly breezes came in late last night and we now have 12 to 16 knots from the southwest, over the stern quarter. Faxes and GFS GRIBs indicate a shift this afternoon to the northeast as the front passes. From the sky and barometer, we’re guessing they are a hair premature, and tonight seems more likely.<\/p>\n

At present we are 170 miles due east of Cape Hatteras and about 720 miles from Lunenberg.<\/p>\n

We are promised 15 to 18 hours of 20 to 30 knot headwinds. Then another clocking breeze, perhaps building to southwest gale force for the rest of the trip. If this occurs, it could make for some excellent surfing, not to mention reduced fuel consumption. The only problem is this could bring rain and fog for our arrival in Nova Scotia.<\/p>\n

Our friend John Harries, who resides near Lunenberg, suggests Shelbourne, 70 miles to the southwest of Lunenberg as an alternate destination if we are late arriving (we prefer not to make landfalls at night into unfamiliar territory). It also has a more open entrance with less reefs and rocks. However, at our present rate of progress, 10.5 knots, we ETA Lunenberg around noon Saturday.<\/p>\n

When we left Panama we resolved to run a little slower to improve fuel economy. However, weather and\/or landfall requirements have conspired with our desire to get there, and we have pretty much been maintaining our usual 1900 RPM. For this passage this has yielded a speed of about 10.25 knots over the bottom so far, slow by our normal standards. Current continues to rob us of around a knot in boat speed, and in order to avoid another frontal passage, this time with a lot of wind, we need to keep up our average speed.<\/p>\n

If we were sailing we’d just heave to during the headwinds, content in the knowledge that if we waited 12 to 24 hours the breeze would become more favorable. But we seem to be in a bigger hurry to get there these days.<\/p>\n

We are starting to think in terms of long sleeves, a heavy quilt for the bunk, and turning the selector switch on the diesel heater to on. Not acting on this yet, but getting ourselves psyched for the coming existential question. Why did we leave warm weather for cruising in water that rarely sees 40F (5C) and is often a lot colder?<\/p>\n

We are downloading weather faxes 24 hours a day, getting GFS GRIB files twice a day, and reading the duty forecaster discussion every six hours With no sails to trim there is more time for watching the weather. The latest discussion follows below. It is worth a read as the comments on model performance, and how the decisions are being made in what to forecast, are fascinating.<\/p>\n

*******<\/p>\n

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC<\/p>\n

200 AM EDT WED 28 MAY 2008 FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES\/WINDS\/SEAS\/SIGNIFICANT <\/p>\n

WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. A COLD FRONT CONTS TO SLIDE SE ACRS THE NRN WTRS ATTM. THE 00Z <\/p>\n

NAM\/GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FCSTG A NLY POSTFRONTAL GRADIENT UP TO 25-30 KT IMMED N OF THE FRONT EARLY TODAY…WKNG TO 20-25 KT <\/p>\n

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON…THEN WKNG FURTHER TONITE INTO THU. THEN LATE THU\/THU NITE THE 00Z GFS CONTS TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN <\/p>\n

THE 00Z NAM IN FCSTG ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SE ACRS THE NT1 WTRS. WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE 00Z UKMET AND OLD 12Z ECMWF…PLAN <\/p>\n

ON FAVORING THE 00Z GFS TIMING FOR THIS FROPA AND WL ALSO FAVOR THE WEAKER 00Z GFS BL WINDS ASCD WITH THIS FRONT. SO OVERALL <\/p>\n

PLAN ON MAKING NO MAJOR SHORT TERM CHNGS TO THE PREV OFSHR FCST PACKAGE.<\/p>\n

IN THE LONG RANGE…VS ITS PREV SLOWER 18Z SOLUTION…THE 00Z GFS HAS NOW FLIP-FLOPPED BACK TO ITS FASTER 12Z SOLUTION IN <\/p>\n

TAKING ITS NEXT DVLPG SFC LOW AND ASCD COLD FRONT OFSHR ACRS THE NRN WTRS LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND <\/p>\n

MEAN FCSTS INDICATE THAT THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS SOLUTION IS TOO FAST. TO VARYING DEGREES THE 00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL GEM AND 00Z <\/p>\n

UKMET ALSO INDICATE THAT THE 00Z GFS IS TOO FAST. THEREFORE FOR NOW PLAN ON FAVORING THE TIMING OF THE 00Z UKMET WHICH IS SMLR <\/p>\n

TO THE OLD 12Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z GFS SLOWED DOWN BY 12HRS ON AVG. DUE TO THE MODEL DISPARITY WITH THIS SYSTEM…AND THE FACT <\/p>\n

THAT IT WL BE A WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER COOL SST\/S SCENARIO…STIL DO NOT HV A VERY HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE <\/p>\n

PREVLY FCST GALES FOR SAT INTO SUN. BUT WITH THE 00Z GEM\/UKMET BOTH FCSTG A DEEPER SFC LOW THAN THE 00Z GFS…FOR NOW WL CONT <\/p>\n

WITH THE PREVLY FCST MARGINAL SWLY PREFRONTAL GALES DVLPG N OF BALT CNYN. SO UNLESS THE 00Z ECMWF COMES IN AND DICTATES <\/p>\n

OTHERWISE…FOR NOW NO MAJOR CHNGS WL BE MADE TO THE PREV OFSHR FCST PACKAGE RGRDG THIS SYSTEM.<\/p>\n

SMLR TO ITS PREV RUNS…THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III HAS INITIALIZED ITS SEAS SM 2-3 FT ON AVG TOO HIGH ACRS THE NT1 AND <\/p>\n

NRN NT2 WTRS SO WL ADJUST ITS FCST SEAS ACRDGLY OVER THE SHORT TERM. OTHERWISE THE MDL\/S FCST SEAS LOOK REPRESENTATIVE THO ON <\/p>\n

LATE SAT\/SUN SINCE THE SLOWER 00Z UKMET FCST TIMING WL BE FAVORED FOR THE NEXT SFC LOW AND COLD FROPA…WL ADJUST ITS FCST <\/p>\n

BUILDING SEAS THEN SLOWER. WARNINGS\/FORECAST CONFIDENCE…PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE <\/p>\n

COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS <\/p>\n

GULF OF MAINE…GALE SAT…LOW CONFDC. GEORGES BANK…GALE SAT…LOW CONFDC. <\/p>\n

S OF NEW ENGLAND…GALE SAT…LOW CONFDC. NT2 MID ATLC WATERS <\/p>\n

HUDSON TO BALT CNYN…GALE SAT INTO SUN…LOW CONFDC. BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN…NONE. <\/p>\n

HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR…NONE. CAPE FEAR TO 31N…NONE. <\/p>\n

FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bahamas towards Lunenberg, Day 3.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dashew-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2243"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2243"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2243\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2243"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2243"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2243"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}