{"id":31327,"date":"2014-03-14T05:19:50","date_gmt":"2014-03-14T10:19:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/?p=31327"},"modified":"2014-03-15T14:33:26","modified_gmt":"2014-03-15T19:33:26","slug":"a-most-difficult-ocean-passage-coming-up-playing-the-weather-odds-in-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/setsail.com\/a-most-difficult-ocean-passage-coming-up-playing-the-weather-odds-in-hurricane-season\/","title":{"rendered":"A Most Difficult Ocean Passage Coming Up – Playing The Weather Odds In Hurricane Season"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Friday<\/p>\n

The passage between New Zealand and French Polynesia is one of the more difficult ocean crossing endeavors. At 2200 miles along the great circle route, it can often be as long as 2600 or more nautical miles depending on weather routing. John and Amanda Neal bill this as a heavy weather passage in their sail training business, and for good reason. FPB 64-6 Grey Wolf<\/em> is on standby, waiting for a weather scenario that offers decent odds. The chart above is for Friday, March 14th, and is not what you\u2019d call auspicious. This is the first leg in her voyage back to the old world and her new home in UK’s Channel Islands via Panama.<\/p>\n

\"FPB<\/p>\n

Here is a look at two of the course options. The red line represents trying to minimize headwinds, and then when Tahiti is a fetch, angle wise, making a left.<\/p>\n

This is late summer in the Southern Hemisphere, which means several things. One is that the South Pacific high pressure system is in its position furthest away from the equator, which brings the easterly trade wind belt south and directly in Grey Wolf\u2019s<\/em> path.<\/p>\n

To make things more difficult, the cyclone season is just ramping up. The official forecast for El Ni\u00f1o, which gives a higher cyclone probability to French Polynesia, is neutral. But the current activity (see below) suggests something is afoot.<\/p>\n

\"THur<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Here is the GFS forecast for next Friday. That\u2019s another tropical event transitioning to extra-tropical, shown halfway along the path to Tahiti.<\/p>\n

There are a few things to take into account with all of this.<\/p>\n