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If you are looking for a magic elixir to successful cruising, it will not be found in the marine hardware catalogs or boat shows. It will not come with state of the art electronics, or a different boat. It is much simpler than that. Of all the things you can do to enhance your cruising experience and safety, having a basic understanding of on board weather forecasting is the most important.<\/p>\n
The cost is minimal – except for some time – and the rewards huge. These benefits accrue at sea and at anchor alike. Although modern forecasting tools are wonderful, they only take you so far. And the models do miss occasionally.<\/p>\n
You may think a professional weather router will save you this trouble. But communications can break down at the wrong time, and weather routers make mistakes, even the best of them. They are relying on model data as well as instinct. Modern weather models do a great job of forecasting energy flows on a macro basis, but they are less successful in frontal zones and in mid-ocean on a micro basis – in other words, in your immediate vicinity.<\/p>\n
One of the best weather routers in the business, Bob McDavitt, has this to say: “The weather models are good over the high seas away from coastlines, away from fronts and lows, and away from convergence zones. Because they are made from a matrix of dots, they smooth out the weather, ignoring details between the dots.”<\/p>\n
Of course, it is exactly the fronts, lows and convergence zones that we want to know about.<\/p>\n
Bob adds the following disclaimer to his forecasts, “Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos. The real world unravels away from the model output shown here. Computer data does NOT do well near a coast or in a trough. In a convergence zone computer gives averaged-out light winds, but occasional squalls can deliver 30 knots for 30 minutes. If your baro strays away from target pressure more than 5 hPa, the forecast needs updating.”<\/p>\n
Having been desk bound for the past year and a half, we\u2019ve not had much need to think about this subject. But Peter Watson and crew aboard\u00a0 FPB 64\u00a0Grey Wolf<\/em>\u00a0have embarked on a journey that will require significant weather skills – both on board and from shore bound routers – and this has brought the subject to the fore.<\/p>\n Above, FPB 64 Avatar<\/em> during sea trials in gale force conditions, with the wind against tide stacking up the seas.<\/p>\n We made the trip from New Zealand to French Polynesia in 1988 with\u00a0Sundeer<\/em>, again in 1997 with\u00a0Beowulf,\u00a0<\/em>and in 2005 to California via Hawaii with the FPB prototype Wind Horse<\/em>. The 1988 trip was just ahead of cyclone Bola’s visit to North New Zealand, and we arrived in Tahiti on the heels of a small but intense tropical system. So we can relate to what Peter and crew are thinking just now. The 1997 trip was easier, but we did have the pleasure of a strong compression gale one evening, with the breeze building to the mid 50-knot range. The 2005 trip with Wind Horse<\/em> was a piece of cake.<\/p>\n On Grey Wolf’s <\/em>first leg, 2200 nautical miles to Tahiti, she has been hit with a bit of a blow – unforecast of course. There was a force eight gale along with six to eight meter (20 to 26 foot) seas, and then the tropical squall\/storm shown above, in which they recorded 54 knots of wind. Grey Wolf<\/em> was located in the strongest part of this tropical vortex in the vicinity of the Cook Islands.<\/p>\n![\"FPB-64-Avatar-Sea-Trials-Gale-Wind-against-current010\"](\"https:\/\/setsail.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/FPB-64-Avatar-Sea-Trials-Gale-Wind-against-current010.jpg\"){kind=avatar}
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