We have been keeping an eye on the Atlantic and Caribbean hurricane season. Although we won’t be heading across the “pond” until the 21st of November, we want to keep track of the trends. This season is forecast to  be a more active than recent years and if the heat energy isn’t being transferred out of the tropics the risks increase for late tropical cyclone activity.

The graphic above is from the National Hurricane Center for this evening (2100GMT). You can keep an eye on these yourself here.

The last few weeks have had above average activity (good from our perspective) and the forecast for the next two weeks is for more of the same. The Colorado State University forecast is here.

Finally, we have been chatting with Rick Shema (Rick is doing the weather routing for Sarah Sarah from Hawaii to Puget Sound) regarding the near term tropical forecast. Rick points out that:

• There is plenty of moisture over the Sahara desert for tropical wave formation.
• Sea surface temperatures are high.
• There is little wind shear.

All of the above bode well for tropical cyclone formation.

Hopefully this year’s cycle will quiet down before our departure time is here.