The normal approach to running the Eastern seaboard of the US from the Bahamas, is to make landfall as quickly as possible. Then, from somewhere like Jacksonville, Florida, or Beaufort, North Carolina, you work the weather windows, however you may define them, or run the "ditch" (Intercoastal Waterway). This keeps you out of the weather, reduces risks, but takes a lot of time.

Wind Horse gives us the option of going direct. The distance is only 1250 miles from the Abacos to Lunenberg. But these can be tough miles. When we departed yesterday we knew there would be some dues to pay the first 18 hours and indeed there were. Twenty to 25 knots of wind from the NE to ENE with the usual 6 to 12 foot (1.8 to 3.6m) waves. With the waves gradually clocking from fine on the bow to the bow quarter, we were making acceptable progress for minor discomfort, averaging 10 knots over the bottom.

If we were not trying to visit Greenland this summer (ice permitting) we might take the coastal route ourselves. There are lots of places to check out, and we have many friends along the way. But we want to husband our schedule for new territory, and the draw of ice is strong, so we’re doing this in a single hop.

This morning the breeze has lightened and clocked further towards the SE as predicted. Winds and seas were a little higher than raw model forecast, but that is to be expected.

One of the things which helps evaluate the models is to check ocean buoy reports. Sailmail now has a facility to request this data within Saildocs.

This is the data on three weather buoys more or less on our course.

We update our routing with Expedition twice a day, using the latest GRIB files. As the GFS model seems to be working well, we are just downloading this plus the Gulf Stream current data. The red arrows above represent the Gulf Stream. The undulating red line is what Expedition suggests for us to take advantage of the Gulf Stream plus minimize weather hassle.

The table above represents Expedition’s take on wind speed, direction, and angle every three hours (plus current). So far, with the previously mentioned allowance for the GFS model being a little light on velocity, this has been accurate. Ocean current data, however, has been way off. The ROTFS model did not account for the knot plus adverse current we’ve had the last 24 hours.

Above is the latest 48 hour wind and wave forecast. Note the NE winds off the coast of New England. This was not in the cards yesterday. It comes from a continental low moving off the coast. What this does not show is the high pressure which will follow, bringing more headwinds. The forecast winds are not that strong, which could change of course, but this is scheduled to catch us in the Gulf Stream, meaning steeper waves and lots of lightning. There might be a change in destination coming.

It is this succession of lows which can make this a difficult passage. They are typically going to hit you every 36 to 72 hours this time of year. The key is to stay alert and try not to get caught in a really bad one.

The Sailmail Saildocs option allows you to subscribe to various data sets, and they will be sent automatically. We have subscribed to the duty forecaster comments (see below). This gives us some insight into what may be coming and how the models are working. In this case GFS is doing the job.

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AGNT40 KWNM 270132 MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

717 PM EDT MON 26 MAY 2008 FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS WILL MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT WHILE

MAINTAINING A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TUE INTO WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO

THE NRN WATERS. THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS

PACKAGE AND KEEP WINDS SUB GALE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST SO WILL USED THE GFS. FOR

SAT THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT MODELS RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY SIG CHANGE.

THE ELEVATED BUOYS IN THE N GULF OF MAINE ARE NOW GUSTING TO 30 KT BUT THE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SAC. SEAS

BOTH IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND W PORTIONS OF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND HUDSON TO BALTIMORE CANYON HAVE INC TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS CLOSE

TO THE MODEL ARE BOTH LOCATIONS. S OF BALTIMORE CANYON SEAS WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION SEAS WERE 2 TO 4 FT.

WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE…PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS GULF OF MAINE…NONE.

GEORGES BANK…NONE. S OF NEW ENGLAND…NONE.

NT2 MID ATLC WATERS HUDSON TO BALT CNYN…NONE.

BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN…NONE. HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR…NONE.

CAPE FEAR TO 31N…NONE. FORECASTER OSZAJCA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.

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The crew of Wind Horse are fit, rested, and content. Our tummies are slowly gathering mass, the result of all those pre-departure preparations. We’ll have to work off the passage weight on some walks next week.