For the past two weeks we’ve been studying the weather patterns between the Bahamas and Nova Scotia, and a depressing series of low pressure and compression zone events has been in effect. This sort of scenario would have us in confused seas, with lots of beating as the lows pass followed with northerly quadrant winds. Not what we like.However, the situation has just gotten a little better, and it is looking right now like we can sneak out of here Sunday or Monday, have headwinds (actually, a shy beat) for the first 36 hours, and then the breeze clocks to a reach and eventually a run.We’ve been watching the GFS and NOGAPs weather models, and talking to Rick Shema (Rick@weatherguy.com) about his take on things. We asked Rick what he thought about leaving with the proviso that we’d accept a day or two of upwind work as long as it wasn’t too breezy. We said to assume 250 miles a day net of current. His comments follow.

• May not make sense to use the Gulf Stream in this case for the crossing. You would be adding extra miles for about 2kt advantage for about 1/3 of the way, with the added risk of low pressure systems spinning up, although no low pressure systems are forecasted over the GS during your transit.
• Under the conditions described in your last email, a direct route starting tomorrow is possible without too much trouble. At first, expect to encounter NE conditions 20-25kts+ seas 5-7ft before the high moves far enough east to veer the winds to Eerly then SWerly ahead of a low pressure system. So you may get your wish.
• The low center moves off the coast of NJ on the 28th at 0300Z. Winds increase to SWerly 20-25kts ahead of a cold front boundary. Cold front passes around 1800Z on the 28th and the winds shift to NWerly 15-20kts. Expect usual unstable weather along the frontal boundary of a moderate to weak cold front. I’m sending along an xls spreadsheet with rte data from Expedition.

For passages like this, with complex weather patterns, we like to discuss the options with someone like Rick, even though we make the final decisions on our own. With easy access to a variety of weather models it is easy to be lulled into a false sense of security. With continental weather making its way out over warm, moist waters (especially the Gulf Stream) the models occasionally fail to catch major events. Often a trained forecaster will see things the models miss. That’s one of the reasons we have Rick in the equation.

As before, we are using Expedition software to look at alternate scenarios. What happens with leaving today as opposed to leaving the next day? Being able to look at the true wind speeds and angles really helps to judge comfort, risk, and boat speed.

We are also looking at the weather faxes – surface and 500mb. These have the advantage of human judgment. The duty forecaster at the Marine Prediction Center is looking at all the models, satellite wind data, and a host of other resources. However, the broadcast fax data is provided on a gross scale, so it is hard to intuit wind speeds and angles with any degree of certainty on your little patch of ocean. But if the faxes show something negative not in the raw models, you can bet we’ll go with the faxes.

If you want to follow the weather data from the Marine Prediction Center with us go to http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/marsh.shtml .

In the meantime, we are preparing Wind Horse and ourselves for the passage. This includes:

• Checking engine room in general.
• Tying down loose engine room gear.
• Inspecting water pump impellers (one replaced).
• Replacing fuel filters (year old and starting to pull vacuum).
• Precooking meals (chocolate chip cookies, banana bread, eggplant casserole, chili turkey, cornbread).
• Bringing up galley supplies from the basement and reorganizing the galley freezer for easy access.
• Rigging jack stays.
• Double lashing dinghies.
• Filling dinghy gas tanks (two), and adding a five gallon fresh water container.
• Moving abandon ship gear to the big dinghy.
• Removing deck and house awnings.
• Adding extra tie down lines to flying bridge awning.
• Preparing the aft stateroom for use in rough weather.
• Fitting extra hand lines between overhead handrails.
• Fitting salon four point harnesses.
• Moving Gale Rider drogue and its rode to aft deck.
• Rearranging fuel and water so aft fresh water tank is filled and forward fuel tank is topped off (helps stability in an ultimate situation).
• Adjust hatch dogs.
• Fit storm covers to hatches.
• Secure computers with light lashings.

Sounds like a long list. The reality is that this represents about a day for each of us. It is a little more than we usually do, but this can be a very tough passage. We’re hopeful the combination of Wind Horse‘s ability to maintain her average speed and modern weather tools will make the preparations unnecessary.

We’ll look at the weather faxes and raw models Sunday morning and make a decision…

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Sunday morning update. Woke up at 0500 raring to go. Downloaded latest data and MPC faxes. GFS and NOGAPs models run through Expedition look better for tomorrow, as do the faxes. The wind speeds are down a few knots and more important, the wind angles are off the bow and back into the 35/50 degree range for the first few days.

There is also the possibility of a big high pressure system forming up in 72 hours, which could bring a period of light winds from aft of the beam – a dream scenario. This is too far out in time to make a decision right now, but by delaying for 24 hours we get some advantage in comfort with the ability to make a decision on waiting for the high on better data.