We’re off! The weather patterns this AM do not look as favorable as they did yesterday, but Beowulf and crew are ready to hit the road and so right now we’re heading due North, right up the 64.5 degree W. Longitude line towards Bermuda.

We’ve got 14 to 15 knots from the SE, smooth seas, and we’re trucking along with our big reacher, mizzen genoa, main, and mizzen set – averaging a little better than 13.

The weather scenario is interesting. The Bermuda high has not strengthened as we’d expected. Rather,an upper level trough has invaded the area, bringing cloudy skies and a drop in pressure – Yuck! The forecast out 36 hours from now looks like more of the same, with light reaching conditions.

The 96 hour 500mb chart shows a cut off upper level low to the north of Bermuda, and what could be a vigorous trough further north. On the surface 96 hour chart (both of these are valid three and a half days from now) they are showing a “developing gale” north of Bermuda and a large low pressure system moving eastwards over the continental US – which would bring compression southwesterlies to us.

Speed on this passage will be essential, if the weather plays out as forecast. We’d surely like to be snugly tucked into Bermuda before that cut off low starts to rain on us. So, we’re going to do everything possible to maintain boat speed.

We figure we need to average about 11.5 knots to beat the weather, if it runs according to the forecast.

Meanwhile, further up the track, at 24 degrees 20 minutes N and 64 degrees 30 minutes W, Calvin and the Neri family (click here for reports from the Neris) are beam reaching at seven to eight knots in light airs. They left two days ago – we think a two day handicap for us in a pursuit race to Bermuda is a bit extreme, but Dan insisted.

Our goal – to break three days to Bermuda – at this point seems pretty elusive given the weather situation – we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. And if does take a little longer we’ll just have more time at sea to enjoy the passage.

(View the weatherfaxes at http://www.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov .)