1100 EDT – The forecasters are warning of another potentially major storm over the Gulf Stream. The crew of BEOWULF are weighing three different options for how to handle it.
1100 EDT – 21’30″N – 63’17W. The 96 hr forecasts are in and they do not look pretty. Ken Campbell’s forecast (from Commander’s Weather) echoes the official data. The potential is there for a major storm. No guarantees mind you, but not something with which we want to take chances.
The situation is this: there’s a frontal boundary which has been hanging around ahead of us about 27N. By itself, this is not a big deal. But to the West there’s a low starting to move down the frontal boundary. Add to this an upper level high with the potential to feed in cold, dry air. If things mix just right, well, we don’t want to wait around and find out what happens.
We have three choices: one, continue as we are, allow the coming SW to W and then NW shift as we approach the front to move us a bit to the east. This sets us up for the NE shift on the north side of the front. Assuming the wind is from 055 true as advertised, we would have a single tack fetch in 30 knots or so of breeze to Bermuda. Probably arrive late Saturday or early Sunday AM. As the nasty stuff is supposed to hit at the earliest late Sunday, this scenario is plausible. However, we need to keep in mind that the entrance to St. David’s and the surrounding reefs are no place to be in a gale with poor visibility – modern nav aids notwithstanding.
The second approach is to heat up and go for speed with a direct course towards Norfolk. For this to work we need to be in ahead of the wind shift to the NE which will come with the second front and high pressure. That N to NE wind is liable to be around for a while, making our destination a long beat, and creating all sorts of nasty breaking seas in the Gulf Stream.
Third approach is to go slow and/or heave to, allowing the situation to the north to clarify and/or work itself out.
Our decision right now is to try for Bermuda. We’ll keep the boat moving and reevaluate every 12 hours. If we are making good progress and the development of the potential storm stays on track or falls behind (more likely than it accelerating) we’ll get snugged down in St. David’s with our big anchors and hang out for a few days. We know this Indian restaurant in Hamilton with fantastic curry…
If the situation deteriorates, to where approaching Bermuda is risky, we’ll heave to for a day or two well this side of the storm track, and or move more to the west where the storm’s impact is likely to be less.
Posted by Steve Dashew (May 3, 2001)
