If you want a classic case in risk avoidance check out the current weather data for the surface and 500mb for the 96 hour forecast.

The (now) hurricane kicking around in the Gulf of Mexico isn’t the issue. The potential problem comes at the 500mb level. There’s a major trough shown cutting off East of New England. If the humidity and heat in the hurricane connects with the forecast cut off low, there is the potential for a real bomb. None of the forecasts are yet calling for this, and the odds are it will not happen. But we are not going anywhere until the situation is resolved.

Steve Black, the organizer of the Caribbean 1500, has made the same analysis, and has postponed the start until, at the earliest, Tuesday. We’ll re-evaluate things at that point and see how they look. Basically, what we are after is to have any remnants of the current hurricane dissipated, so as not to provide fuel for an extra tropical storm.

All of this means that we’ll finally have time to visit a number of the museums in this area, and maybe get in a bit of daysailing.

If you are interested in risk avoidance with weather, watch how the surface and 500mb forecasts evolve over the next four to seven days. It should be a very informative exercise.