Wind Horse is presently anchored in Pago Pago, American Samoa. We are in return home mode – we’ve been away from the family too long. The trip to the West Coast of the USA from the tropical South Pacific is one we’ve done numerous times before. In the past we’ve departed from the Marquesas Islands, well to the east. This time we’re taking a different approach, due to the capabilities of Wind Horse.

The direct route is roughly 4300 nautical miles, which includes a modest allowance for losses due to current. Weather permitting, we’ll do this in a single hop of about 16 days. But for this to occur, we need cooperation from the wind gods – it is hurricane season in the Tropical North Pacific.

There are three phases to the passage. The easiest is from Pago Pago to the top of the doldrums, which presently sit about 10 degrees North latitude in the area where we’ll cross. Almost directly on our path lies the lovely atoll of Fanning. This makes a great stopping point if we want a break in the trip, or if weather dictates that we wait awhile. The distance to Fanning is roughly 1280 nautical miles, with another 400 or so to the top of the doldrums if we continue on.

Phase Two takes us towards Hilo, Hawaii from the doldrums. This is the tricky part of the passage, as it crosses the hurricane belt during the height of the hurricane season. As we write this, there is the potential of having four named hurricanes in the Eastern and Central Pacific at one time – a rare occurrence. The good news is that if this goes as planned, there is a good chance these tropical storms will have cleared out by the time we get to that part of the world. In theory, they will dispense tropical energy towards the poles, which means that it will take awhile for the tropics to regenerate for the next burst of activity. Keep in mind, this is only theory.

There are several ways to approach the second phase of the trip between the doldrums and Hilo. If the situation is looking positive, we can head directly on our track, bypassing Fanning. The go/no-go decision for continuing on to Phase Two must be made about 9 degrees North latitude. As we approach this point we can move on; slow down to await better conditions; or, if something unusual is occurring, head back south towards the equator and totally out of the hurricane belt. On the other hand, as we approach Fanning we might just decide to hang out for a while if we don’t like the way the weather is shaping up.

The final phase is between Hawaii and Southern California. There are several issues to consider. The first is that we don’t want to be dealing with any high latitude tropical storms. Once we are a day or two northeast of Hawaii, this risk diminishes significantly. Moving northeast is a comfort issue. If the trades are blowing northeast, on our nose, we’d prefer not want to fight them.

The Pacific High usually develops a rhythm where the predominant northeast trades go to the southeast every week or ten days. You then usually have a couple of days on which to make a northeasterly course on a comfortable basis, with the wind and seas on the beam. If the high is not in its southeast phase when we are in the area of Hilo, we will probably stop, and wait for a few days until the breeze clocks around. Why fight Mother Nature? Besides, we have three sets of friends living on the Big Island.

The objective once we leave the region of Hawaii is to get into the windless center of the high as quickly as possible. Once in the center, we will power through to the eastern side where the winds are northwest to north. This strategy for returning from the islands is the same for power or sail. The advantage we have with Wind Horse is her ability to head uphill at a very fast, and comfortable pace.

We have a variety of weather resources now available. First, there are the weather faxes from KVH in Hawaii. The faxes which cover the Eastern Pacific originate from the National Hurricane Center in Florida and/or the Marine Prediction Center. Central Pacific faxes come from Hawaii National Weather Service.

For tropical decision-making, the satellite images are critical. In the image above (all of the faxes have been downloaded here in Pago Pago) the Hawaii Islands are center left, and the dot below them is Christmas Island. Fanning is just north of Christmas. You can see the beginnings of four tropical systems with closed circulation.

Here is a fax from a few days ago covering the Central and Eastern Pacific. Hawaii is in the center left hand corner.

The Eastern Pacific faxes just barely get out to our part of the world. Although they will not directly impact us until the last part of the trip, they are an important data source for what may be coming from the east.

Eastern Pacific tropical storms usually follow the circulation of the Pacific High, which means they move mostly on a westerly course. They proceed at a speed typically in the seven-to ten-knot range, although sometimes they will move as fast as 15 knots (this is rare). The key for us is not having any potential problems upwind – to our east – during the period we are exposed. If you assume that Hilo is a safe haven (which is debatable) then at a cruising speed of 12 knots we only need a little over two days to get clear. However, we’d prefer to look at this as a trip to the center of the high, so we will be looking towards a four-day grace period.

One of the decisions we will have to make is cruising speed. The slower we go, the more efficient we are in terms of range. However, for at least the four-day period mentioned above, we are going to want to run at a fast clip. Either side of this, we may back off to ten or eleven knots, depending on what the weather looks like.

While fooling around with hurricanes is to be discouraged, they are not all bad on a passage of this nature. If we get ourselves into a position where we are upwind of a closed system – i.e. to the east of the storm center – then we will find favorable winds and the trades will be quiet for several days after the storm has moved on or died out. We used this technique bringing Beowulf back from Nuka Hiva eight years ago (resulting in a 12-day 3-hour passage to San Diego). However, the technique we are describing here requires a boat which can maintain a fast average speed in adverse winds and seas. And you have to be very alert to the weather risk factors. As you probably know, we are risk adverse!

There are some other weather resources to call upon in this process. One of these is a feature of SailMail/WinLink called "SailDocs". SailDocs allow us to request or subscribe to various weather publications around the world. Amongst these are some excellent forecast and discussion notes from the National Weather Service in Honolulu and the National Hurricane Center. In a few days we will start to download these on a daily basis using Iridium or the SSB e-mail system. On the off chance you find this of interest, samples from Friday, September 16, are below (this same data is available for all regions of the world from different sources). You can download them yourselves by clicking on the URLs.

The first two documents are for the Eastern Pacific. Then comes the Central Pacific.

URL: http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/pub/data/text/ABPZ20/KNHC.TXT Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2005 00:20:39 GMT

Last-Modified: Fri, 16 Sep 2005 23:11:29 GMT

ABPZ20 KNHC 162204 TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC… EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE JOVA… LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII…

AND ON HURRICANE KENNETH… LOCATED ABOUT 1165 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS

SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY… BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO

…IF IT DOES NOT GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE EAST.

A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED

THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH… AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART —

URL: http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/pub/data/text/AXPZ20/KNHC.TXT Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2005 00:20:36 GMT

Last-Modified: Fri, 16 Sep 2005 23:19:52 GMT

AXPZ20 KNHC 162211 TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2205 UTC FRI SEP 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.

…SIGNIFICANT FEATURES… HURRICANE JOVA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 136.2W AT 2100 UTC MOVING

W AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 979 MB. SEE LATEST NHC

FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. JOVA REMAINS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A

SMALL EYE FEATURE BECOMING VISIBLE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BANDING FEATURES ARE WELL DEFINED WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND

120 NM SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR JOVA TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT

MOVES WESTWARD.

HURRICANE KENNETH IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 124.4W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO

90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 979 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC

FOR MORE DETAILS. KENNETH CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING PATTERN AN EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED

STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM NW QUADRANT AND 60 NM S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN

90 NM OF CENTER. LIKE JOVA…FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR KENNETH TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

1009 MB TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS NEAR 12N112W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO MAJOR ORGANIZATION IS BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 112W-116W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AN UPPER LOW JUST ITS NW APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT

AT THE PRESENT TIME.

1009 MB TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS NEAR 13N103W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS THE LARGER OF THE TWO DISTURBANCES WITH SCATTERED

STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 105W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN WHAT APPEARS

TO BE DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES IS SEEN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 100W-105W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE

PAST 24 HOURS…AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

…ITCZ… ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N84W 10N92W 16N100W 11.5N104W 14N112W THEN

THROUGH THE CYCLONES TO NEAR 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE

11N97.5W 11N100W.

…DISCUSSION…

THE TROPICAL CYCLONES AND DISTURBANCES ARE LINED UP TODAY WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS FORECASTING 4 TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EPAC

TOMORROW…WHICH WOULD BE QUITE A RARE EVENT. IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA.. SHORTWAVE ARE BRUSHING THE NORTHERN BORDER

WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM MOVING INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS CONTROLLING MOST OF THE AREA FROM CENTRAL BAJA

CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N115W SW TO 22N140W. A MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 19N116W MOVING NNW ABOUT 15 KT. THIS LOW IS CREATING SOME

SLY SHEAR ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 12N112W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE LINE OF POSSIBLE AND CURRENT

TROPICAL CYCLONES. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS JUST OFFSHORE OF SW MEXICO NEAR 20.5N106W. IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA…UPPER

RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEAR 12N98W TO COSTA RICA IS PROVIDING SOME DIFFLUENCE TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 6N BETWEEN

80W-83W. AGUIRRE

—

URL: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/hurricane_products/central_pacific/weather/outlook.txt Date: Fri, 16 Sep 2005 23:19:39 GMT

Last-Modified: Fri, 16 Sep 2005 19:43:09 GMT

Expires:No;;007914 ACPN50 PHFO 161939

TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

1000 AM HST FRI SEP 16 2005

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE JOVA. AT 900 AM HST JOVA WAS ABOUT 1360 MILES EAST

SOUTHEAST OF HILO MOVING TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. JOVA IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC MIDDAY SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE…NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

FARRELL

—

URL: http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/pub/data/text/ACPA40/PHFO.TXT Date: Fri, 16 Sep 2005 23:14:46 GMT

Last-Modified: Wed, 26 May 2004 09:57:38 GMT

ACPA40 PHFO 260955 TWDPA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

1000 UTC MAY 26 2004

CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…FROM 30N TO EQUATOR BETWEEN 140W AND 180 CENTRAL SOUTH PACIFIC…FROM 25S TO EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 180

BASED ON METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS THROUGH 0600 UTC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. MOVEMENTS AND TRENDS PAST 24 HOURS

UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE.

CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC

TROPICAL CYCLONES/DISTURBANCES… NONE.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURES… ITCZ…ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CB…WHICH EXTENDED EAST OF

140W…WERE BOUNDED BY 10N140W 04N143W 05N150W 10N150W AND MOVED WEST AT 10 KT…INTENSIFIED AND INCREASED IN COVERAGE. ISOLATED CB

WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 08N156W 08N164W 06N170W MOVED NORTH AT 05 KT WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGHS…ISOLATED CB WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 18N175W 21N172W 26N173W MOVED WEST SLOWLY…INTENSIFIED AND

INCREASED IN COVERAGE.

MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…KAUAI TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII… NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. FOR DETAILS…SEE THE LATEST

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE WITH WMO HEADER ATHW40 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER HFOSIMHI.

NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…KURE ATOLL TO NIHOA INCLUDING MIDWAY… SEE CB AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGHS IN OTHER

SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC.

JOHNSTON ISLAND… NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE… NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

CENTRAL SOUTH PACIFIC

TROPICAL CYCLONES/DISTURBANCES… NONE.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURES… WEAK SURFACE LOW…ISOLATED CB WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 05S177W 07S169W

MOVED WEST AT 05 KT…WEAKENED AND DECREASED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TROUGH…ISOLATED CB WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 14S171W 19S168W 22S163W MOVED SOUTHEAST AT 15 KT WITH LITTLE CHANGE. ISOLATED CB

WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 19S159W 22S154W MOVED SOUTH AT 05 KT… INTENSIFIED AND INCREASED IN COVERAGE.

AMERICAN SAMOA AND THE INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA… SEE CB AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN OTHER SIGNIFICANT

FEATURES IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH PACIFIC.

ELSEWHERE… ISOLATED CB WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 01S143W 07S142W MOVED WEST AT 15

KT…WEAKENED AND DECREASED IN COVERAGE. ISOLATED CB WITHIN 75 NM OF POINT 09S149W MOVED WEST AT 10 KT WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

HOUSTON