We’ve been watching the weather since arrival in Fanning, looking for the optimum combination of reduced tropical risks and moderate trades. We’re after a comfortable and safe passage.

The direct passage from Fanning to Hilo is a hair under 1000 nautical miles. Depending on what happens with the trade winds and sea state, we may make some easting in the countercurrent, which usually comes into play around 6 to 8 degrees North latitude. If the trades stay as forecast, which is light and easterly as we approach Hawaii, we’ll sail a direct course. If the trades look to become more boisterous, we’ll add some angle to the east when it is easy. Right now, at 4 degrees North latitude we’ve got 14 knots of wind just forward of the beam, and Wind Horse feels about the same as at anchor (except the air conditioning is keeping us cooler!).

Early October usually represents the tail end of the hurricane season in this part of the world – or at least a reduction in the frequency of occurrence. However, October and even November can produce plenty of tropical cyclonic activity. These systems usually start as easterly waves of disturbed moisture-laden atmosphere. The waves originate as low pressure systems off the Sahara desert in North Africa. They then float across the Atlantic. If they don’t get employed in mischief in the Caribbean or US Gulf or East Coasts, they are available for Mother Nature’s designs in the Eastern Pacific.

There are currently two easterly waves off Central America which may turn into tropical problems. However, these are well to our east, and we have plenty of time to get to Hawaii and then further north if conditions warrant. The 72-hour forecast above will give you a pretty good idea of how the situation looks. We’re almost at 160 west longitude, off the chart to the west.

Hurricane Kenneth has been much on our minds as it meanders across the Pacific. It is now down to tropical storm strength, and far enough to the west so that we will have no problems crossing behind it. Kenneth is predicted to pass close to or over the Big Island of Hawaii in the next day or two.

Hurricanes in this part of the world usually are steered by the Pacific High, and/or upper level troughs digging down from the north. As such, they almost always follow a west-to-northeast course. Regression to the east is rare. Tactically speaking, this makes crossing this belt of activity fairly simple. Make sure that anything dangerous is kept to your west (i.e. stay to the east of the hurricane center). The east side will have favorable winds, and push you away from the center. It also usually takes a couple of days for the disturbed air masses to reestablish themselves in the normal tradewind pattern.

The other caveat of these tactics is having a backup plan if something goes wrong to our east. Perhaps a storm starts to form where nothing was predicted. Or a mechanical problem slows the boat. In this case, our action would be to head back south, closer to the equator and out of the danger zone (this season most of the storms seem to be tracking north of 10 degrees North latitude).

We will be taking a very close look at what is going on one and two days from now, as we begin to enter the danger zone.

All of the above is predicated on having a reliable boat, being able to maintain certain minimum speeds. In our case, we can run at 12.5 knots all the way to Hilo, if required. Right now we’re down to 10.5 knots, a comfortable, economic compromise. But once we pass into the area where the tropical risks increase, we may increase boat speed to get the passage over with more quickly.

If we were to be doing this with a slower boat, the tactical approach would remain the same, except that we would need more time to get across the risk area. Given the present alignment, we could probably do this averaging 150 miles a day (6.5 knots) – but of course the risks would be higher, and the degree to which we could forecast the weather to be encountered would be compromised.