The weather gods are smiling on us for the present. The breeze is down to just five knots, seas are relatively calm, boat speed is sitting on 11 knots made good after allowing for losses due to current. Our deck hatches are open. We’ve hosed the salt off the flying bridge, and as this is being written Wind Horse is getting a much needed vacuum job.

We’ve even begun to use a blanket when sleeping – now that is a milestone!

After three days at sea the two of us are into the routine. We’re sleeping well, feeling rested, and we are not going hungry (although we could use a little less food in preparation for the orgy of yummy things which is sure to follow landfall on the mainland). We’re even thinking about producing a berry torte with whipped cream in the galley – but that is still under negotiation.

We’re catching up on our reading (there is a large stack of magazines that came in a mail package, and lots of books), watching a couple of DVDs each evening, writing and reading lots of e-mails, and doing the odd chore on board the boat (mainly checking the engine room and cleaning).

We continue to be amazed (and grateful for) the comfort with which Wind Horse transports us across the ocean. The past three days have not been the best of conditions, with swells from the 12- to 14-foot range, down to six feet on the nose being the norm. Yet here we are, well rested, fed, and after three full days at sea 710 nautical miles from our departure point – that’s an average of 9.86 knots after allowing for adverse current. Like we said, amazing.

Speaking of swells, at present we have a smallish easterly swell in the three- to four-foot (0.9 to 1.2m) range running under the bow. Much more interesting is the very long period northwesterly swell, running a good 12 to 16 feet (3.6 to 5m) under our counter. Now, if we could get some wind from the stern to go with those swells we’d get some good rides.

The weather situation continues to be complex, to put it mildly, both in the upper atmosphere and here at sea level. The jet stream and 500mb weather are still well north of "normal", and the cycling of the high pressure systems remains a bit strange as well.

The graphic above is of the GFS model we downloaded this morning. The numbers indicate the dates. You can easily see why we have calm conditions right now. In essence, we’re in the middle of a double high. Our barometric pressure is only 1022 mb right now, which ties to the pressures shown on this chart.

The GFS model is showing us that the next couple of days will be light to moderate headwinds. Given where we are, with no major disturbances hanging around in the upper atmosphere, the model data is probably pretty close (although we check this with Rick Shema, as he has access to a variety of models).

On the fifteenth, when the fax chart above is valid, we will be at roughly 30N and 140W.

The GFS model is predicting headwinds for us in the 15-knot range for the 16th and 17th, and then the breeze backs around to the beam. With the model going out that far, it has to be taken with a grain of salt. The 96-hour faxes are a better bet, as these are the product of a forecaster looking at all the models and how they are performing. In fact, you can download from the web "Marine Interpretation Messages" with each forecast cycle in which the duty forecaster discussed his thinking, and how the various models are performing. We get these with SailDocs via the Iridium, and the data which ties to these faxes is at the end of this article.

The fax above is the entire Pacific, to set up the pattern for you. This is out 96 hours from now, on our 17th. The top chart shows the synoptic (pressure) situation, while the bottom has wind and wave.

This is a cropped section of the same faxes. We should be somewhere around 32N and 131W about this time. The isobars here would indicate moderate to light northerlies If this occurs, we should have northerly quadrant breezes all the way to the coast. That would be cool.

Of course we’ve been discussing the above with Rick Shema. Our questions deal with how he feels the models are performing, and any risk factors that may be in the background. Rick initially suggested we take a more northerly route, to bring the waves more behind us as we fell off the the final run to the coast. But this was based on the dislike many of his clients have for strong beam winds and waves. In our case, this does not bother us, so our current routing will bring us in just a hair above our final latitude. All of the above is subject to change, of course, as we close with the coast and have forecasts that are not so far out and therefore liable to be more accurate.

Following is the text from the high seas forecast, which pretty much covers the Pacific basin, and then the duty forecaster comments on what he is thinking. Makes for interesting reading.

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC/TPC MIAMI FL OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER/OFB 0545 UTC OCT 13 2005

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT

TO 50N 160E TO 30N 160E.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC OCT 13. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 14.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 15.

WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WARNING… LOW 38N 166E 992 MB MOVING NE 30 KT. WINDS 40 TO 50 KT SEAS 14

TO 22 FT WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS 30 TO 45 KT SEAS 12 TO 18 FT WITHIN 300 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS AND 240 NM N

SEMICIRCLE. ALSO WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 9 TO 15 FT OVER WATERS S OF 43N W OF 174E.

24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N 179W 974 MB. FORECAST WINDS 50 TO 65 KT SEAS 17 TO 27 FT WITHIN 180 W QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE FORECAST

WINDS 40 TO 55 KT SEAS 14 TO 24 FT WITHIN 300 NM SW AND NE…420 NM SE…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS. ALSO FORECAST WINDS 25 TO 40 KT

SEAS 10 TO 18 FT OVER WATERS S OF 49N BETWEEN 166W AND 166E. 36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N 172W 956 MB. FORECAST WINDS 55 TO 70

KT SEAS 24 TO 38 FT WITHIN 240 NM S AND SW…AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS. ELSEWHERE FORECAST WINDS 40 TO 55 KT SEAS 18 TO 28 FT

OVER WATERS FROM 41N TO 50N BETWEEN 161W AND 178W. 48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N 166W 958 MB. FORECAST WINDS 45 TO 60

KT SEAS 30 TO 43 FT WITHIN 300 NM S SEMICIRCLE…AND 240 NM N AND NW QUADRANTS…ALSO FROM 49N TO 53N BETWEEN 155W AND 161W.

ELSEWHERE FORECAST WINDS 35 TO 50 KT SEAS 20 TO 32 FT WITHIN 600 NM SE… 480 NM SW AND NE…AND 300 NM NW QUADRANTS. ALSO

FORECAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 12 TO 20 FT OVER WATERS FROM 33N TO 56N BETWEEN 150W AND 177E.

…STORM WARNING… AREA OF NW WINDS TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 14 FT FROM 45N TO 57N

BETWEEN 162W AND 174W. 24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 44N 138W 1001 MB. FORECAST WINDS 25 TO

35 KT SEAS 11 TO 16 FT WITHIN 420 NM W AND 300 NM S QUADRANTS. ELSEWHERE FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 10 TO 14 FT WITHIN 660

NM W AND 420 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS. 48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N 132W 982 MB. FORECAST WINDS 45 TO 60

KT SEAS 20 TO 32 FT WITHIN 240 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS. ELSEWHERE FORECAST WINDS 30 TO 45 KT SEAS 14 TO 24 FT WITHIN 360 NM NW…

420 NM SW… AND 300 NM SE QUADRANTS. ALSO FORECAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 12 TO 24 FT OVER WATERS FROM 39N TO 48N BETWEEN 125W

AND 132W…AND FROM 39N TO 54N BETWEEN 132W AND 141W.

…GALE WARNING… LOW 61N 175E 997 MB NW OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVING SE 15 KT.

OVER WATERS…AREA OF SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS TO 10 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 48N 160E TO 54N 175E.

24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N 177W 998 MB. FORECAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 8 TO 13 FT WITHIN 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE

FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS TO 9 FT WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 61N 166W TO 54N 179W.

48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY FORECAST LOW 49N 166W DESCRIBED ABOVE.

SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

LOW 59N 143W 987 MB DRIFTING NW 05 KT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 14 FT WITHIN 420 NM S SEMICIRCLE.

24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N 147W 1007 MB. FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITH NW SWELL OVER WATERS N OF 40N E OF

145W. 48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

LOW 49N 126W 1004 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 9 TO 15 FT WITH NW SWELL WITHIN 120 NM SE OF A FRONT EXTENDING

FROM LOW CENTER TO 45N 129W TO 42N 133W. 24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

AREA OF N TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT SEAS TO 11 FT FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W.

24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

48 HOUR FORECAST AREA OF E TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 9 TO 15 FT ACROSS FORECAST WATERS S OF 35N W OF 173E.

48 HOUR FORECAST AREA OF SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS TO 10 FT OVER WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 46N 160E TO 55N 173E.

HIGH 35N 135W 1024 MB DRIFTING S. 24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N 135W 1021 MB.

48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

HIGH 32N 165W 1022 MB MOVING E 10 KT. 24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 32N 161W 1022 MB.

48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

HIGH 44N 179W 1027 MB MOVING E SE 35 KT. 24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N 159W 1026 MB.

48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N 146W 1025 MB.

48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N 166E 1032 MB.

FORECASTER CLARK. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC THU OCT 13 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI OCT 14

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT OCT 15

WARNINGS. NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. N OF 12N W OF 125W NE WIND TO 20 KT SEAS 8 FT.

24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. 48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 22N W OF 128W WIND LESS THAN 20 KT

SEAS 11 FT IN NW SWELL.

FROM 4N TO 10N E OF 95W W WIND TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT. 24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W

W WIND 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT. 48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W

S TO SW WIND 20 KT SEAS 9 FT IN S SWELL.

REMAINDER OF AREA WIND LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0245 UTC THU OCT 13… INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE..10N86W 10N115W 12N124W

12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 115W.

$$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES

TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC OCT 13 2005. 24 HR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 14 2005.

48 HR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 15 2005.

THIS HIGH SEAS FORECAST USES 1-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS WHICH MAY BE HIGHER THAN 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS.

WARNINGS. NONE.

SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND FORECAST.

TROUGH THROUGH 28N 177W 20N 175E MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED TSTMS OUT

TO 350 NM E OF TROUGH.

RIDGE THROUGH 30N 178E 21N 160E NEARLY STNR AND WEAKENING.

WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE AREA.

SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN AREA N OF A LINE…30N 155W 21N 172W 24N 180 30N 180.

24 HR FORECAST…SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN AREA BOUNDED BY…30N 140W 20N 160W 12N 165W 18N 177W 30N 168W.

48 HR FORECAST…SEAS 9 TO 11 FT N OF 20N E OF 150W.

OTHERWISE SEAS 9 FT OR LESS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 110 NM OF A LINE FROM

15N 175E TO 08N 160W.

ITCZ…ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WTIHIN 150 NM OF A LINE…12N 140W

14N 147W 11N 166W.

—–

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC

OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER/OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH 725 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2005

FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

LATEST SCAT PASS SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS PZ5 WATERS. GFS INDICATES FRONT EXPECTED TO

WEAKEN TONITE AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO BLO GALE FORCE. I DONT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS PZ5 WATERS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME GALE WINDS WILL MOVING INTO NRC CA WATERS EARLY SAT…HOWEVER I WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE

WARNING HEADERS BECAUSE IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL. I WILL ADD GALES TO THE FCST OVR SRN CA WATERS SAT AND SUN…AS THE THERMAL

TROF STRENGTHENS ALONG THE CA CST.

WARNINGS…PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE.

PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS… CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT…GALE FORCE EXPECTED THU NGT IN

SAT. CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE…GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THU

NGT INTO SAT.

PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS… PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA…GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THU NGT

INTO FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN. PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION…GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SUN.

PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND…GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SAT INTO EARLY SUN.

FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.