Some time in the next week or two we’ll he heading from the West Indies to Bermuda – probably leaving from the British Virgin Islands.

We’ve started watching the weather patterns at sea level and at the 500mb level with the Marine Prediction Center fax charts. There are two stations from which we receive data: NMF in Massachusetts and NMG in Louisiana. You can view these, along with us, by going to http://www.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov .

NMG broadcasts fax data covering the Caribbean. In particular, we watch the tropical surface analysis, along with the 12, 24, 36, and 48 hour wind and wave forecasts. From NMF, which covers the North Atlantic, we are watching surface and 500mb charts for current conditions, and then the 24,48 and 96 hour forecasts.

As our course to Bermuda takes us along an oblique collision course with the continental weather systems, there is pretty good data available for a passage like this – the Marine Prediction Center can watch what is happening from the Pacific Coast east to make their analysis – so there’s no dearth of data as you find in other cruising areas.

The basic passage logic is straightforward: we need three days of favorable winds for the roughly 900 sailing miles of the trip. This means leaving with an easterly trade wind, and arriving before a frontal passage.

If we miss on timing, and a front catches us at sea south of Bermuda, the wind will then shift to the northerly quadrants creating headwinds and an uncomfortable crossing sea – something to be avoided.

For a boat which takes longer to cross, the logic is still the same – make sure you are not caught by the back side of a front as you approach Bermuda.

We’re also alert to the risk of meteorological “bombs”. This is late spring, so the potential risks are reduced. Still, you have a situation where the continental cold fronts – with cold, dry air from Canada – can come into contact with warm, moisture-laden air of the sub-tropics – add in the impact of the Gulf Stream, and if the Gods stir the mixture correctly, all sorts of things will be hitting the fan.

So, we’re watching the 500mb level to get a feel for what the patterns look like for normal weather this season.

Bermuda is situated at about 32 degrees N latitude and 64 W longitude. Beowulf is at 18 degrees N latitude and 64 degrees W longitude – so our course is due North – if the wind patterns allow.

Watch the patterns on the faxes daily with us over the next few weeks, and we’ll share our thoughts with you.

(For tips on tuning in SSB fax broadcasts, click here.)