Antigua to Bermuda Passage Day 3: Confusing Weather Forecasts

Interpreting a very confusing set of surface and forecast faxes.

Saturday, May 13, 0200.

1030 – Wind has quickly backed to the NNW – almost right on nose. Put away jib and mizzen and have the engine back on, motorsailing right into it. Main is bladed out, sheeted in hard, foot is flattened, mast at full bend. Steering at 15 apparent which gives us a little drive from the main. We’re making 9.5 knots for 2.5 gallons per hour.

1050 – Wind now in the N, oscillating back and forth a few degrees. Have dropped main as with it up we are obliged to sail 30/40 degrees either side of the rhumb line, to keep it drawing. Beowulf is a little bouncier, but our vmg towards Bermuda is much better.

1730 – 27 degrees, 06 minutes N, 64 degrees 24 minutes W. Very confusing set of surface and forecast faxes. Wind could come from almost any direction with the closely spaced lows and no intervening high pressure system. The general run of the isobars is north/south, which means probably head winds. The question is from which direction.

We’re pretty sure we’ll be in by Monday a.m., so the effects of the oncoming front will be minimal. Fuel is holding up and we still show enough to power the full distance, even if we don’t get some relief from the wind.

Because of the confused nature of the frontal systems, we don’t see anything with any real power in it.

Any bias we get in the wind which allows us to move west of the rhumb line we’ll take, as this will get us into what we expect to be a southwest flow, ahead of the front – even if the isobars stay strangely aligned as presently shown. In a slower boat, which would be out here longer, I’d probably do the same, assuming we’d use the eventual NE shift to move NNW and be properly positioned for the front behind this one.

(View the weatherfaxes at http://www.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov .)


Posted by Steve Dashew  (May 13, 2000)



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