The exceptionally (to us) warm water has had us wondering about the hurricane outlook for 2008. Six years ago we were heading north from Panama and got caught in an early June under-forecast tropical storm, so we’re leery. Our legs through the Caribbean, then onwards to Bermuda and Newfoundland, are all in areas at risk.

So we asked Rick Shema, AKA Rick the Weather Guy (www.weatherguy.com) if he had any early thoughts on the upcoming season. Rick’s comments are below.

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Hi Steve:I hope your trip is going OK. Official data from NOAA regarding tropical cyclone activity for the upcoming season is usually released towards the end of May. However, we can make some general observations in light of global weather oscillations (ENSO) as we know them now.

• As you may know, there is an ongoing moderate strength ENSO La Nina (cold phase). The strength is trending down from strong La Nina earlier this year. The latest report as of April indicates a moderate La Nina until the end of July. Then afterwards there is considerable divergence in forecast guidance, so not much help there.
• Normally, during La Nina events the tropical activity in EPAC is about the same or slightly less than normal. Correspondingly, in the Atl, tropical cyclone activity normally trends higher. This is due to upper level (200mb) winds being weaker than normal which favors TC activity by reducing vertical wind shear.
• The tropical cyclone activity does not start getting really active until mid to late summer, when there is considerable question regarding the strength of La Nina or even its existence then.
• A "normal" TC season in the Atl is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes of which 2 are Cat 3 or higher. So, I would expect slightly more active season this year based on an assumed waning La Nina.
• In regards to SST in your later note…..82.5-83.0 seems a little warm for that area. But I would not fear enhanced TC activity solely based on SST above 80. As you know, there other components. You may experience enhance localized convective activity, but the atmospherics play just as an important role as SST.
• Currently, it is quiet in both Pac and Atl basins. The only convective activity from Manzanillo to Panama Canal seen on latest satellite image is over the Bay of Panama associated with the normal ITCZ.

So that’s a brief summary of where we stand now.

Aloha, Rick