We’ve been hanging out in Labrador for the past two weeks waiting for the right set of weather conditions for the passage to Greenland. We normally do not make such a big deal about weather, but with ice visibility issues at both ends of the passage we want to get this right. To recap, here is what we are after:

• Clear weather coming off the coast of Labrador until clear of the limit of known icebergs. This means wind not from the southern quadrant which often brings fog.
• Winds of not more than 17 knots and preferably less, so white caps do not interfere with our view of bergy bits.
• Similar conditions for the last 100 miles of the passage as we approach the Greenland coast.

Sounds simple enough. The problem is that this is an area affected by a series of regional weather phenomena which make the situation very difficult to figure out. There are polar weather generators, the Greenland high, Azores high, and continental weather systems all mixing and matching. At times over the last couple of weeks we have seen as many as five lows noted on the faxes.

Rick Shema, weather router extraordinaire, has been saying for the last five days that Saturday, the 12th looks like it could be the day. We see nothing right now, eighteen hours out from theoretical departure, to change our mind.

Now some details. The chart above is the Canadian berg count chart for the 10th of July. We are located at the arrow, to the west of the #4. Squares are a degree on each side. This is pretty light berg density compared to two or three weeks ago.

And yesterday’s ice chart for Greenland. We are hopeful of getting into Julianhab, located near the hand (under the D with the egg shape around it). This chart is much improved over a week ago, and we might be able to make it. But we will have alternate destinations further north where it is clearer, just in case.

The NOAA Marine Prediction Center 48 hour surface projection. This would be valid on Sunday, probably about the time we would slow down or heave to for darkness. We should be located at the hollow arrow between Labrador and the tip of Greenland (about 57N and 50W). There is not much wind indicated here.

Using the SailMail Saildocs function we have been downloading both GFS and NOGAPs raw weather models, and then running them through Expedition Routing to check the wind speed and direction along the course for various departure dates. This is the GFS model run from 1100 Z this morning, with a start date of 0330 local time (first light) Saturday. The course indicates waypoints to minimize ice exposure.

The data above projects what we would expect in weather at various points throughout the passage. The key thing is that winds are light. And being from the north or west quadrants, apt to be clear. For the first time in two weeks both GFS and NOGAPs models are agreeing.

Another issue is timing of our departure and approach. If we leave at first light, say 0330 local, we have 54 hours of passage time using a reduced speed of ten knots. To this we need to add two dark periods hove to or operating at minimum speed, which is another eight hours. So, 60 to 62 hours total. This would have the last 12 hours of the passage, as we approach Greenland, in daylight. And, assuming we can make it to our primary destination, we would arrive in late afternoon.

Although we show ten knots speed in the matrix above, we’ll cruise the first half or two-thirds of the passage at eleven to buy us the possibility of a landfall more to the north during daylight, should ice conditions warrant that.

One last thing to point out. Go back up to the MPC 48-hour surface projection and note hurricane Bertha. It will probably follow the edge of the Bermuda/Azores high, and die out in cold water or from shearing action in the upper atmosphere. But there is always a risk that it could come into contact with a mid-latitude low, and then transition to an extratropical storm system, and follow a track across the North Atlantic. This is something we would not want to deal with, and have asked Rick to keep an eye on this for us.

All of the above is subject to to Rick’s analysis. But we want to send in this update while we have WiFi in Cartright.

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Update – Comments from Rick:

Hope this gets to you in time. I received your note after 1500Z when I first read my email this morning. Anyway, you are good to go for a Saturday 0630Z departure. Should have light 5-13kts WNW-WSWerly winds for the first 24hrs. Expect multi-layered clouds currently over NE Canada to clear to partial cloudiness strato cu with good visibility.

Expect an increase in WSW-SWerly winds about 13Jul1200Z to 15-20kts then increase further by 13Jul1500Z to 17-22kts, seas 5-6ft. You should be clear of the ice field on the west side of Labrador Sea by then. Expect a decreasing trend on 14Jul0600Z to WSWerly 12-17kts. If it gets too rough then you can slow down and wait for the gradient between the moving low to the north and high pressure ridge to the south to ease.

No worries from Hurricane Bertha. Strong high pressure ridge will keep Bertha to the south for the next five days at least. But afterwards we may need to keep an eye on the storm while you are in Greenland.

GFS and NGPS in agreement mostly, but NGPS moves low over Canada quicker at 14Jul1800Z point. This is believable but still no impact on your trip. Also, NGPS reflects stronger Werly gradient wind during your transit. Also, believable. I used NGPS guidance, but not strictly in forecast above in para 3.

Let me know how your trip progresses.

Thanks, Rick