We’re in bare feet for the first time in a long while. Water temperature is a balmy 58F (12C). Sun is shining, puffy cumulous clouds dot the horizon, and the wind is steady from the northwest, almost dead behind us. Wind Horse and crew are enjoying the passage.

Keeping up with the vagaries of North Atlantic weather is taking a lot of time. We are mainly looking at surface and upper level data from the British fax station at Northwood (NMF in Boston now being hard to receive). We are also checking the weather models, and of course with Rick Shema.

The potential for a real blow towards the end of the passage has dropped significantly. Currently it is hard to figure out what to expect in detail (there being lots of possibilities). None, however, entail anything that would rate an audience at the yacht club bar, for which we are grateful.

We have backed off the RPMs a hair, so we will close with the coast in daylight. We are averaging about 10.6 knots net of current, which continues to be somewhat on the nose. We could drop another knot, and still arrive in daylight, saving fuel in the process. However, the North Atlantic being what it is, reducing sea-time and weather exposure is the most prudent approach.

The sensation of wearing light clothing, going barefoot, and having hatches open is not unwelcome. It is also pleasant to be into our passage routine in a low stress environment.

Rick Shema’s comments follow:

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Steve:

Gfs, ngps, ecmwf all show you sailing in a nice high pressure ridge until the 14/12Z. Following the east side of the ridge axis.

After 14/12Z all aids show the ridge breaking down as you approach Ireland and sail into a weak disturbance currently over Ireland on 15/12Z. The weak low should also disrupt the Nerly pressure gradient so that the stronger Nerly winds forecasted earlier should not be as strong. Expect Nerly 10-15kts and seas continuing at 8-10ft with an abating trend by 14/12Z.

Model differences become apparent in how the low is oriented and the speed of drift towards the east or north. They all pretty much agree to be a non-event at least on your scheduled arrival date.

Depending on when and how the low becomes oriented expect generally light wind speeds with either continued NNWerly to NWerly winds of 5-10kts or if the low develops stronger could back the winds to SWerly by 15/00Z again light speeds at about 5-10kts.

Along with the low, expect some unsettled sky conditions in the form of rainshowers, overcast.

So you are still good at present GC route with SOA of 10.0-10.5kts.

Next update in about 12hrs.

Rick Shema Weatherguy.com