If you are looking for a magic elixir to successful cruising, it will not be found in the marine hardware catalogs or boat shows. It will not come with state of the art electronics, or a different boat. It is much simpler than that. Of all the things you can do to enhance your cruising experience and safety, having a basic understanding of on board weather forecasting is the most important.
The cost is minimal – except for some time – and the rewards huge. These benefits accrue at sea and at anchor alike. Although modern forecasting tools are wonderful, they only take you so far. And the models do miss occasionally.
You may think a professional weather router will save you this trouble. But communications can break down at the wrong time, and weather routers make mistakes, even the best of them. They are relying on model data as well as instinct. Modern weather models do a great job of forecasting energy flows on a macro basis, but they are less successful in frontal zones and in mid-ocean on a micro basis – in other words, in your immediate vicinity.
One of the best weather routers in the business, Bob McDavitt, has this to say: “The weather models are good over the high seas away from coastlines, away from fronts and lows, and away from convergence zones. Because they are made from a matrix of dots, they smooth out the weather, ignoring details between the dots.”
Of course, it is exactly the fronts, lows and convergence zones that we want to know about.
Bob adds the following disclaimer to his forecasts, “Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos. The real world unravels away from the model output shown here. Computer data does NOT do well near a coast or in a trough. In a convergence zone computer gives averaged-out light winds, but occasional squalls can deliver 30 knots for 30 minutes. If your baro strays away from target pressure more than 5 hPa, the forecast needs updating.”
Having been desk bound for the past year and a half, we’ve not had much need to think about this subject. But Peter Watson and crew aboard FPB 64 Grey Wolf have embarked on a journey that will require significant weather skills – both on board and from shore bound routers – and this has brought the subject to the fore.
Above, FPB 64 Avatar during sea trials in gale force conditions, with the wind against tide stacking up the seas.
We made the trip from New Zealand to French Polynesia in 1988 with Sundeer, again in 1997 with Beowulf, and in 2005 to California via Hawaii with the FPB prototype Wind Horse. The 1988 trip was just ahead of cyclone Bola’s visit to North New Zealand, and we arrived in Tahiti on the heels of a small but intense tropical system. So we can relate to what Peter and crew are thinking just now. The 1997 trip was easier, but we did have the pleasure of a strong compression gale one evening, with the breeze building to the mid 50-knot range. The 2005 trip with Wind Horse was a piece of cake.
On Grey Wolf’s first leg, 2200 nautical miles to Tahiti, she has been hit with a bit of a blow – unforecast of course. There was a force eight gale along with six to eight meter (20 to 26 foot) seas, and then the tropical squall/storm shown above, in which they recorded 54 knots of wind. Grey Wolf was located in the strongest part of this tropical vortex in the vicinity of the Cook Islands.
In the dramatic water vapor movie of this same event shown above, Grey Wolf is positioned roughly on the 160 degree longitude line and 25 degree latitude line, under the most intense activity. Although Grey Wolf was using two different weather services, nobody caught this event in their forecast. For Peter Watson and crew, it was no big deal, even with 54 knots of breeze. In a less well-found vessel, the situation might have been otherwise.
Understanding the basics of weather forecasting and logging wind direction, velocity, and barometric pressure, you have a much better chance of figuring out what is going on weather-wise in your neighborhood, and what to do about it, rather than just relying on weather faxes or GRIB files. This is especially important in the tropics, where the model projections are less precise and more prone to error.
Then there are risk scenarios to be weighed before departing. The weather forecast services constantly evaluate what their models are telling them. They use numerous weather models, from which they synthesize a forecast. One model may show a gale in three days, another a storm force condition, while three others show a stiff breeze.
The forecaster has a conundrum. If he over-forecasts, says there is a storm coming, and then nothing happens, he takes heat. Plus his perspective is different than yours. If you are sitting in Las Palmas in the Canary Islands, or Norfolk Virginia, ready to head to the tropics, and someone says there’s a 5% chance – one in 20 – of a strong gale or storm force winds, do you depart, or wait a couple of days and see what happens?
By understanding the basics, in particular the warning signs at the 500mb level, you can see these risk factors, quantify them for yourself, and then make an informed decision on whether or not to go. You are in a better position to discuss the conditions and forecast scenarios with the professionals, rather than just accepting what is being said – and hoping for the best.
This photograph of the catamaran Ramtha was taken during a rescue operation at the height of the Queen’s Birthday Storm in 1994. This event was a tragic example of what we are talking about. There were low probability indicators several days in advance that this blow could occur. When they first appeared, these were ignored by the forecasters and yachts in the vicinity. As the storm developed, problems were compounded by bad tactical advice given on the SSB Radio net. Had the yachts in the storm’s easterly quadrant moved a bit west, rather than just staying put and hanging on, they would have been much better off.
Which brings us to part two of this post: heavy weather tactics. The most important tactic is avoiding heavy weather in the first place. But if you spend enough time at sea, occasionally you are going to feel Poseidon’s wrath, in which case understanding the structure of the pressure flow that is causing your grief becomes critical.
Here is an extreme example of what is possible. The photo above was taken from a helicopter during the 1998 Sydney Hobart Race The crested wave we are looking at is in the range of 80 feet. If you are under that crest, there is little that can be done. But if you are using active storm tactics, as opposed to passive, you can survive. In these conditions, the 31-foot light displacement sloop Bin Rouge made it through, where other larger, more “seaworthy” yachts were lost. The success of Bin Rouge was the result of sailing upwind as opposed to running with the storm, and reaching across the breaking wave faces towards the more easily negotiated passes between crests.
Often moving a moderate distance in the correct direction can make a huge difference in the wind and seas encountered. This is particularly important with tropical storms, where as little as 30 miles can mean the difference between a moderate gale and hurricane strength wind. Once you understand the dynamics of pressure flow, you will have more tools at hand.
In terms of both avoiding heavy weather and having the best tactical options, boat speed, steering control, and vessel reliability are paramount. Small problems have a habit of cascading into serious issues in difficult weather.
(For a current recap of some of our clients’ experiences with weather see the posts Cruising Speed & Real World Range Under Power, and Why FPB. Throughout the SetSail site, there are numerous photographs, videos, and posts covering these subjects as well.)
Two of our books, Mariner’s Weather Handbook and Surviving the Storm, came about because of questions we were asked in almost every anchorage we visited in the 1990s. Cruisers who had made it from Europe to the tropical South Pacific were worried about what was to come. The guys would be talking to Steve and the gals to Linda, each group with their private concerns. Since weather and storm tactics were at the core of the way we looked at almost every aspect of cruising (as it was with most of our experienced cruising buddies), this came as quite a surprise. The lack of understanding of these subjects, and the reliance on group opinion as opposed to thinking things out for oneself, provided the catalyst for us to get to work on something that might help.
Which brings us to the present.
Dashew Offshore, Beowulf Publishing, and the FPB team have been blessed with the support of the cruising community for many years, and we’d like to return the favor in a small way. We are making these two books, Mariner’s Weather Handbook and Surviving the Storm, available for free as PDF files. We hope Mariner’s Weather Handbook helps you avoid the need for Surviving the Storm. If these books help a few of our fellow cruisers have a more enjoyable experience, and perhaps stay out of difficulty, we will have been amply repaid. Simply click on the links below to download these publications.
We’ll see you out there cruising in 2016.
Click here to download Mariner’s Weather Handbook
Click here to download Surviving the Storm
Posted by Steve Dashew (March 31, 2014)
March 21st, 2014 at 1:25 pm
Upon the recommendations of several others, both of these have been on my list of things to study prior to purchasing our offshore voyaging vessel.
Thank you Steve, Linda, and crew!
April 4th, 2014 at 12:22 pm
After reading a few hundred pages from the files you posted, I must ask. Who put together the PDF files? They did an excellent job!
April 4th, 2014 at 9:52 pm
The PDF was a combined effort of Elyse and Sarah Dashew.
February 10th, 2015 at 8:06 am
These are the best books on sailing safety I have found, brimming with priceless advice. I’m now a fan, I’m definitely buying the encyclopedia once its on Kindle or Pdf, perhaps even as Hardcopy.
March 21st, 2014 at 1:55 pm
Thanks so much! I’ve been a regular reader since you began the FPB series, and have learned so much from the Web site and your DVDs. These books are a valuable addition to my sailing library!
Brian
March 21st, 2014 at 7:17 pm
Steve,
Even though I am currently a land-bound misfit, I very much look forward to reading these.
Thank you very much.
Matt L
March 21st, 2014 at 7:36 pm
Wow!
Thanks a million.
March 21st, 2014 at 7:46 pm
Thank you kindly Steve.
March 21st, 2014 at 10:20 pm
That’s very generous of you… thank you. Best, Warren
March 21st, 2014 at 11:41 pm
Thanks so much! What a wonderful gift to all us lurkers!
March 22nd, 2014 at 3:52 am
The Legend of Steve+Linda Dashew grows even more. What an amazing way to say “Thank You”!!! Given the enormity of the usefulness and value of these masterpieces, it is as remarkably kind and generous of you to make these available as a “Thank You”-gift, as it was for you-two to have written them. Thank You ever so much, Steve+Linda, Dashew Offshore, Beowulf Publishing, and the FPB team.
March 22nd, 2014 at 7:59 am
Thank You! 🙂
March 22nd, 2014 at 9:11 am
Thanks lots.
March 22nd, 2014 at 11:44 am
Thank you very much
March 22nd, 2014 at 2:44 pm
As others have said I echo – thank you Linda & Steve (and all involved in the FPB adventure)for sharing of yourselves, your experiences, your learning and wisdom. Fair Winds!
March 22nd, 2014 at 3:08 pm
In rememberance of the lost schooner, last year, (and losses ever since) sharing this knowledge makes cruising more secure.
And now for free.
I hope it spreads over the world.
Thank You
March 23rd, 2014 at 10:32 am
I always enjoy reading your stuff……thank you for all this!!
-Frank
March 23rd, 2014 at 3:08 pm
Many thanks for the digital books!
I really appreciate it very much.
All the best,
Isabel
March 23rd, 2014 at 10:59 pm
Wow Steve, thank you! And so timely. Best regards
March 24th, 2014 at 2:28 am
thankyou, great books
March 24th, 2014 at 6:44 am
Steve and Linda! Words cannot express how grateful I am to you both for sharing your passion, your wisdom, your dreams, and your books. I received three of your masterpieces, “Mariner’s Weather Handbook,” “Surviving the Storm,” and “Practical Seamanship” (the hardbound version with gold lettering on the spine) for Christmas a few years back. They sit on my bookshelf reminding and inspiring me to return to the sea. Now having these two books on my iPad, I’ll be able to bring them with me wherever I go! Nice.
Just know that there are many, many people like me whose lives you have touched, transformed, and moved in a magical direction.
Warm regards from the heart…
Patti
March 24th, 2014 at 9:08 am
Over the years, we have relied on these two books as study guides and reference resources for our time at sea. They are not a one time read and done – they occupy a prominent space in our onboard library and are used frequently. We heartily recommend them.
Iron Lady
March 24th, 2014 at 10:43 am
Wow, very kind of you. Thanks guys!!!
March 24th, 2014 at 12:39 pm
Fantastic gift to the cruising community. I shared it on The Boat Galley’s Facebook page.
March 24th, 2014 at 3:15 pm
Thanks Steve and Linda! We have these books both in printed and electronic form and have found the knowledge contained in them to be voluminous and practical. This is a nice gift to the community.
March 24th, 2014 at 8:44 pm
Thank you very much for your generosity and contribution to the safety of all of us cruisers out there.
March 24th, 2014 at 11:14 pm
Thanks, that is very kind of you! Now I must go I have some reading to do!
March 25th, 2014 at 6:53 pm
Wow!
Very generous! I have the hard copies and suspect I will really appreciate the electronic versions. Thanks again!
Don
March 26th, 2014 at 9:51 am
Love having this downloaded. We are out now & can use the help. We met you in Green Turtle Cay several years ago on Wind Horse. Never forgot your kindness.
March 26th, 2014 at 12:52 pm
Great reading!
March 26th, 2014 at 3:24 pm
Thank you very much. This very generous offer includes a huge wealth of information.
March 26th, 2014 at 4:12 pm
This was honorable for you to do this. Thanks and fair sailing.
March 26th, 2014 at 7:19 pm
To Echo everyone else. THANK YOU. Really generous, a great read, and something that will no doubt help us all! Anthony
March 27th, 2014 at 7:30 am
Thank you very much for this gift ! So generous.
March 27th, 2014 at 8:11 am
[…] and Linda Dashew over at Setsail are giving away two of their books in the form of free PDF downloads. We own and have read both titles and can highly recommend […]
March 27th, 2014 at 2:09 pm
To Steve and the Set Sail Crew,
Thanks! That was a very nice thing to do. I had bought these in print, but I love having them in digital form.
Steve, you’ve been an inspiration, and I’ve learned much over the years from you. You are one hell of a sailor. You built some great boats, I know, I have a DF 61. Still, we sailors miss you since you’ve joined the dark side.
Tim
March 27th, 2014 at 2:43 pm
I hope Santa will be nice to you this Christmas. May your sails be always filled, seas gentle and compass true! God bless!
March 28th, 2014 at 6:28 pm
Thanks very generous! I’m sure I will enjoy the read.
March 28th, 2014 at 2:28 am
I’ve only just started reading these and already I think they are so well written. I’ve been looking for something like this for so long. Thank you,
March 28th, 2014 at 2:11 pm
Many thanks. The gesture is much appreciated.
March 29th, 2014 at 12:13 am
Thanks a lot. I have always enjoyed your view of the world and your way of explaining things.
Thanks a bunch
March 29th, 2014 at 7:54 am
Many thanks for these two great books. I have taken the liberty of recommending them to others.
March 29th, 2014 at 4:55 pm
Thank you, very much!
March 29th, 2014 at 7:19 pm
Many thanks for your generosity in making your books available.
ML
March 29th, 2014 at 8:52 pm
Steve,
Thankyou for these books. I have all you books, CDS and DVDs and this will add to my electronic cursing library.
Thankyou again,
Regards,
Michael Conner.
March 30th, 2014 at 3:03 am
I love your books, the problem of sailboats now is the lack of good bookshelves. Thanks for the Pdf´s
March 30th, 2014 at 4:58 am
Thank you very much for sharing this knowledge.
March 30th, 2014 at 7:18 am
Thank you Steve. I’ll try to “pay it forward”.
March 30th, 2014 at 7:51 am
Steve & Linda, Thank you very much! Look forward learning from your experiences.
Kind regards,
Gerard O’Neil
March 30th, 2014 at 3:41 pm
Thanks. Two mates who’ve read these have recommended them. I really appreciate you sharing them at no charge.
March 31st, 2014 at 12:28 am
I bought both these books when they were first published.
The weather forecasting book takes a bit of work to understand the 500hPa theory, but its magic once you do.
Its a great thing you’ve done here Steve and Linda in allowing people everywhere free access to this vital information.
Well done.
We’re doing the Tahiti circuit this year – going to some of your favourite places !
All the best
Alan
March 31st, 2014 at 11:09 am
A very generous offer gratefully received, thank you.
April 2nd, 2014 at 12:27 am
Have been a longtime reader of Mariner’s Weather – occupies pride of place on my onboard bookshelf. Thank you for the digital version and for Surviving the Storm. Good karma accrues to you both
April 2nd, 2014 at 11:35 am
Excellent work.Many thanks for free download.